Prachuap 2-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Prachuap face Sukhothai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sam Ao Stadium plays host to Prachuap versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Prachuap at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Prachuap, 1.10 for Sukhothai FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Prachuap's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Prachuap's games and 70% of Sukhothai FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Prachuap edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Prachuap 0–2 Sukhothai FC — a Sukhothai FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 67% and Sukhothai FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 52% | Sukhothai FC 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Prachuap surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Sukhothai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.95 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.860 / defence 0.893 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.809 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.167. Sukhothai FC's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Prachuap's projected output up. Data: built from Prachuap's last 54 games and Sukhothai FC's last 54.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.60 | Draw 4.40 | Sukhothai FC 6.83. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Prachuap's last 10 home games and Sukhothai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Prachuap 70% (last 10 home games) | Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Prachuap 1.95 / Sukhothai FC 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.860 / def 0.893 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.809 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Sukhothai FC xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC FAQs
What time does Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap 2 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 63% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Prachuap and Sukhothai FC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.86) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.81x) against Prachuap's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Prachuap's last 54 games and Sukhothai FC's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.40
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.80
0.84
Sukhothai FC xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
2%
48.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.84 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 54 games, going 14W 16D 24L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.17 PPG from 54 outings (16W 15D 23L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Prachuap against 1.17 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.78 points per game from their last 27 away games (4W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Prachuap (Home) vs Sukhothai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Prachuap
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC Form FAQs
What form are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 14W 16D 24L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 15D 23L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.48 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won Sukhothai FC 0-3 Prachuap on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Prachuap
3
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Prachuap have won 4, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Prachuap 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Sukhothai FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 67%, Sukhothai FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Prachuap) and 52% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Prachuap vs Sukhothai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Prachuap and Sukhothai FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Prachuap's games and 63% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Prachuap and Sukhothai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Prachuap's recent games and 52% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Sukhothai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Prachuap's recent matches and 78% of Sukhothai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Sukhothai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Sukhothai FC 2-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.95 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.84 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 63% | Draw 23% | Sukhothai FC 15%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 52%, Sukhothai FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.07 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.