Prachuap 1-2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sam Ao Stadium plays host to Prachuap versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.00 PPG across 9 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 3W 2D 4L across 9 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.22 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.22 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Prachuap against 1.22 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 56% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Prachuap 56% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.12 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.777 / defence 1.162 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.683 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.006 / away 1.265. Prachuap's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Prachuap games / 9 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 38% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 33% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 38% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Prachuap 1.12 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.777 / def 1.162 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.683 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.006 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Prachuap 1 - 2 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 38% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.78) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.68x) against Prachuap's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.37
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.13
1.00
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.00 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Prachuap come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Prachuap against 1.22 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Prachuap's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Prachuap's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.67 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Prachuap go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 33%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Prachuap and 0% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Prachuap have failed to score in 67% of games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Prachuap's recent matches and 67% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Prachuap's recent games and 0% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Prachuap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Prachuap 1-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.12 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.78 / defence 1.16 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.44, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 38% | Draw 30% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 32%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 56%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.00 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.