Prachuap 3-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Chonburi FC travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chonburi FC — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Chonburi FC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Prachuap.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
It is worth noting that Chonburi FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 62% and Chonburi FC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 56% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.13 xG and Chonburi FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.927 / defence 1.243 | Chonburi FC attack 1.017 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.224. Data: 48 Prachuap games / 48 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Chonburi FC 2.22. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 80% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Prachuap 1.13 / Chonburi FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.927 / def 1.243 | Chonburi FC attack 1.017 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Chonburi FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Prachuap 3 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC part of?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 26% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Prachuap and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
26%
3.85
29%
3.46
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.68
1.55
Chonburi FC xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
18.10
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.55 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 12D 24L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 23W 11D 14L from 48 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 8W 6D 9L from 23 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.73 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 12W 12D 24L in their last 48 games (1.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 23W 11D 14L in their last 48 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chonburi FC's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.09 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Chonburi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 61%, Chonburi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Prachuap) and 52% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Prachuap's games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Prachuap's recent games and 52% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chonburi FC 3-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.13 xG and Chonburi FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.93 / defence 1.24 against Chonburi FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 45%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 56%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.