Prachuap 1-3 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Prachuap and Chiangrai United meet at Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 0W 4D 5L from 9 Thai League 1 appearances (0.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's away record: 6W 0D 1L from 7 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.57 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Chiangrai United are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Prachuap 1W, Chiangrai United 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 50% versus Chiangrai United 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 44% | Chiangrai United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.64 xG and Chiangrai United 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.672 / defence 1.239 | Chiangrai United attack 0.972 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 0.997 / away 1.137. Prachuap's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Prachuap games / 16 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 17% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 55%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Chiangrai United 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Chiangrai United (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Prachuap's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 56% | Chiangrai United 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 17% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 35% | xG Prachuap 0.64 / Chiangrai United 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.672 / def 1.239 | Chiangrai United attack 0.972 / def 0.958 | league avg home 0.997 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Chiangrai United xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Prachuap 1 - 3 Chiangrai United.
Where is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United part of?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 17% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Prachuap and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.67x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.97x) against Prachuap's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
17%
5.72
28%
3.57
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.01
1.37
Chiangrai United xG
5.72
17%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
4%
22.48
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 18.3 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.37 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 4D 10L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (8W 2D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 0W 3D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 2.57 points per game from 7 outings (6W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.62 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Chiangrai United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 4D 10L in their last 16 games (0.62 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 8W 2D 6L in their last 16 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.43 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.57 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 5, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Prachuap 3-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 57%, Chiangrai United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Prachuap) and 43% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 57%; Prachuap have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Prachuap's recent matches and 43% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Prachuap's recent games and 43% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangrai United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Prachuap 1-3 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 0.64 xG and Chiangrai United 1.37 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.67 / defence 1.24 against Chiangrai United attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 17% | Draw 28% | Chiangrai United 55%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 44%, Chiangrai United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.