Port FC 3-3 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Port FC and Police Tero meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 0.69 xG and Police Tero 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Police Tero attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.709 / away 1.208. Data: 0 Port FC games / 0 Police Tero games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Port FC 18% | Draw 38% | Police Tero 44%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 5.56 | Draw 2.63 | Police Tero 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Police Tero if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 18% | Draw 38% | Police Tero 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Port FC 0.69 / Police Tero 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Police Tero attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.709 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Police Tero xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Police Tero kick off?
Port FC vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Police Tero?
Port FC 3 - 3 Police Tero.
Where is Port FC vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Police Tero part of?
Port FC vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 18% chance of winning, Police Tero a 44% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Port FC and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Police Tero in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (0.85x) against Port FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
18%
5.58
38%
2.61
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Port FC xG
Total xG
1.87
1.18
Police Tero xG
5.58
18%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
5%
18.19
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 18.1 | 10.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Port FC and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Port FC and 1.18 for Police Tero, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Pre-Season
Police Tero
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Port FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 0-4 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port FC
3
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Police Tero have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Police Tero 0-4 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Police Tero?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Port FC and Police Tero share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Port FC and Police Tero drew 3-3 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 0.69 xG and Police Tero 1.18 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Police Tero outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Police Tero attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 18% | Draw 38% | Police Tero 44%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.