Police Tero 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Police Tero at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC meet at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 November 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Police Tero (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Police Tero have posted 4W 3D 3L at Boonyachinda Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Police Tero's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Police Tero, 2 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Police Tero goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 57% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 43% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.45 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.996 / defence 1.038 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.698 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.136. Data: 44 Police Tero games / 44 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 51% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.76. Police Tero hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Police Tero if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Police Tero 60% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 51% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Police Tero 1.45 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.996 / def 1.038 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.698 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 November 2022 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Police Tero 1 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 51% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (2 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2W.
What form are Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Police Tero (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Police Tero's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack (0.70x) against Police Tero's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.52
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
5%
20.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Police Tero and 0.82 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Police Tero come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 17D 14L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Ratchasima FC sit at 1.20 PPG from 44 outings (14W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Police Tero against 1.20 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Police Tero's home form reads 7W 8D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Police Tero are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.02 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 13W 17D 14L in their last 44 games (1.27 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Police Tero's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.45 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Police Tero have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Police Tero
0
Draws
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 2, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-3 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 60%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Police Tero) and 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Police Tero's games and 55% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Police Tero's recent games and 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Police Tero edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.45 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 51% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 43%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.27 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Police Tero win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.