Police Tero 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Police Tero at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Police Tero host Buriram United at Boonyachinda Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 September 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Police Tero have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Boonyachinda Stadium, Police Tero have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Buriram United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Buriram United have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Police Tero 1.70 PPG, Buriram United 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Buriram United, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Police Tero.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Buriram United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Police Tero trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Buriram United trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 65% versus Buriram United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 62% | Buriram United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.36 xG and Buriram United 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.136 / defence 1.132 | Buriram United attack 0.998 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.065. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Police Tero games / 34 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 40% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 32%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Buriram United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Police Tero offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Police Tero 60% | Buriram United 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 25 Sep 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 40% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Police Tero 1.36 / Buriram United 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.136 / def 1.132 | Buriram United attack 0.998 / def 0.702 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Buriram United xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Buriram United kick off?
Police Tero vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 25 September 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Police Tero 1 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Police Tero vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Buriram United part of?
Police Tero vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 40% chance of winning, Buriram United a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Police Tero and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Buriram United?
Record (4 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Police Tero and Buriram United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Police Tero's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.60
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.57
1.20
Buriram United xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.20 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Police Tero come into this having played 34 games, going 12W 11D 11L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Police Tero, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.47 PPG from 34 outings (26W 6D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Police Tero — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Police Tero's home form reads 8W 7D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.35 points per game from 17 outings (12W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.44 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 12W 11D 11L in their last 34 games (1.38 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 26W 6D 2L in their last 34 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.82 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Police Tero or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Police Tero have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Buriram United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Buriram United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Buriram United go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2024, when Buriram United won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Police Tero's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Police Tero
1
Draws
5
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Buriram United?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 0, Buriram United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Buriram United 6-2 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 59%, Buriram United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Police Tero) and 53% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Buriram United in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Police Tero's games and 53% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Police Tero's recent games and 53% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Buriram United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Police Tero 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Police Tero 1-2 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.36 xG and Buriram United 1.20 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.14 / defence 1.13 against Buriram United attack 1.00 / defence 0.70, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 40% | Draw 28% | Buriram United 32%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 62%, Buriram United 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.