Nong Bua Pitchaya 2-1 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Suphanburi travel to Pitchaya Stadium to take on Nong Bua Pitchaya. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 2W 0D 2L at Pitchaya Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pitchaya Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suphanburi stand at 1W 4D 3L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Suphanburi have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 0.88 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Nong Bua Pitchaya) versus 0.88 (Suphanburi). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Suphanburi trading profile (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 43% versus Suphanburi 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 29% | Suphanburi 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG and Suphanburi 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.870 / defence 0.985 | Suphanburi attack 0.643 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 0.991 / away 1.236. Data: 7 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 8 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 34% | Suphanburi 29%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Suphanburi 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Suphanburi's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nong Bua Pitchaya at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 25% | Suphanburi 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 34% | Suphanburi 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 / Suphanburi 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.870 / def 0.985 | Suphanburi attack 0.643 / def 1.100 | league avg home 0.991 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Suphanburi xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2 - 1 Suphanburi.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 38% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack at 0.87x the league average against Suphanburi's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suphanburi's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
38%
2.64
34%
2.99
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
1.73
0.78
Suphanburi xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.99
34%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 13.9 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0.78 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 1D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Suphanburi sit at 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Suphanburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.00 PPG, Suphanburi on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Suphanburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
0
Draws
0
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, Suphanburi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Suphanburi 1-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 43%, Suphanburi 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 57% (Suphanburi).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 29% of games; Suphanburi in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Suphanburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 71% of Suphanburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 57% of Suphanburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nong Bua Pitchaya edge out Suphanburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Suphanburi 2-1 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG and Suphanburi 0.78 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Suphanburi attack 0.64 / defence 1.10, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 38% | Draw 34% | Suphanburi 29%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 29%, Suphanburi 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Suphanburi's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.00 PPG, Suphanburi 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nong Bua Pitchaya win broke the near-deadlock. Nong Bua Pitchaya scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.