Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Nakhon Ratchasima FC take on Suphanburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium plays host to Nakhon Ratchasima FC versus Suphanburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 3 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all games): 1W 1D 2L across 4 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Suphanburi have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 0L. Last five: D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Suphanburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Suphanburi are 0.50 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Suphanburi — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% and Suphanburi 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25% | Suphanburi 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG and Suphanburi 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.866 / defence 0.967 | Suphanburi attack 0.723 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.384. Data: 4 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 4 Suphanburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31% | Draw 37% | Suphanburi 32%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Suphanburi 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% | Suphanburi 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31% | Draw 37% | Suphanburi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 / Suphanburi 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.866 / def 0.967 | Suphanburi attack 0.723 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Suphanburi xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 1 Suphanburi.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 31% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Suphanburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Suphanburi in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D. Suphanburi (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.87) and Suphanburi's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suphanburi's attack (0.72x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
37%
2.74
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
1.91
0.97
Suphanburi xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.97 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nakhon Ratchasima FC come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Suphanburi sit at 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (1W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Suphanburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Suphanburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Nakhon Ratchasima FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Suphanburi are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suphanburi in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
Suphanburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Suphanburi in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Suphanburi have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0
Draws
1
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Suphanburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2022, when Suphanburi 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Suphanburi 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 75% (Suphanburi).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Suphanburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 75% of Suphanburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Suphanburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 75% of Suphanburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Suphanburi tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Suphanburi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Suphanburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Suphanburi 2-1 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.95 xG and Suphanburi 0.97 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Suphanburi attack 0.72 / defence 0.94, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 31% | Draw 37% | Suphanburi 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nakhon Ratchasima FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 25%, Suphanburi 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Suphanburi's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Suphanburi arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nakhon Ratchasima FC scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.