Nakhon Pathom 1-2 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Pathom host Rayong FC at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's home record at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayong FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Rayong FC have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nakhon Pathom at 0.90 PPG versus Rayong FC's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nakhon Pathom register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Rayong FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Rayong FC 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nakhon Pathom in-play and half-time data (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 56% and Rayong FC 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Pathom 67% | Rayong FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.53 xG and Rayong FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.809 / defence 1.452 | Rayong FC attack 0.844 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.254. Data: 56 Nakhon Pathom games / 27 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 37% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Rayong FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 70% | Rayong FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 37% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.53 / Rayong FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.809 / def 1.452 | Rayong FC attack 0.844 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Rayong FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC?
Nakhon Pathom 1 - 2 Rayong FC.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 37% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 0W | Draws 1 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Pathom's attack rating (0.81) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Nakhon Pathom's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
37%
2.68
25%
4.00
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
3.06
1.54
Rayong FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.54 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Nakhon Pathom have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 5W 6D 16L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayong FC's form line: 6W 8D 13L from 27 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Pathom on 0.78 PPG, Rayong FC on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nakhon Pathom have posted 0.92 PPG from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.26 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 70%.
Last 27 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Rayong FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 5W 6D 16L in their last 27 games (0.78 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 6W 8D 13L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Rayong FC away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 0.92 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nakhon Pathom
1
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, Rayong FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-2 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Pathom 67%, Rayong FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Nakhon Pathom and 67% for Rayong FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rayong FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 58% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 67% of Rayong FC's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Nakhon Pathom 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Nakhon Pathom 1-2 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.53 xG and Rayong FC 1.54 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 1.45 against Rayong FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 37% | Draw 25% | Rayong FC 38%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 67%, Rayong FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 0.78 PPG, Rayong FC 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.