Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Muangthong United welcome Port FC to Thunder Dome Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United at Thunder Dome Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Muangthong United) versus 1.30 (Port FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Muangthong United, 1 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Muangthong United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 65% versus Port FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 49% | Port FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.81 xG and Port FC 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.110 / defence 1.304 | Port FC attack 1.055 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.192. Port FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Muangthong United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Muangthong United games / 37 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 42% | Draw 22% | Port FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Port FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 80% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 42% | Draw 22% | Port FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Muangthong United 1.81 / Port FC 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.110 / def 1.304 | Port FC attack 1.055 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Port FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Port FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Muangthong United 0 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Port FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 42% chance of winning, Port FC a 35% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Muangthong United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Port FC?
Record (2 meetings): Muangthong United 1W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Port FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.11x the league average against Port FC's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
42%
2.36
22%
4.47
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.45
1.64
Port FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
19%
5.16
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.64 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 14W 13D 10L from 37 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 14L across 37 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.49 PPG, Port FC on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 11W 5D 2L from 18 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Muangthong United are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Port FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 14W 13D 10L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Port FC have gone 13W 10D 14L in their last 37 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Port FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.11 PPG; Port FC away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Port FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Muangthong United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Muangthong United
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Muangthong United at 83%, Port FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Muangthong United and 67% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Muangthong United's games and 67% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Muangthong United's matches and 67% of Port FC's.
Do Muangthong United and Port FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Port FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Muangthong United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United and Port FC finished level at 0-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.81 xG and Port FC 1.64 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Muangthong United fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Port FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.11 / defence 1.30 against Port FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 42% | Draw 22% | Port FC 35%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 49%, Port FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Port FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.49 PPG, Port FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.