Muangthong United 2-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Police Tero fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Muangthong United host Police Tero at SCG Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 1.38 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SCG Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Muangthong United are significantly better at SCG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 2W 3D 3L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.38. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Muangthong United) versus 1.12 (Police Tero). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Muangthong United in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 75% and Police Tero 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 62% | Police Tero 50%). Note also that Police Tero surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Muangthong United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.66 xG and Police Tero 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.294 / defence 1.254 | Police Tero attack 0.949 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 0.999 / away 1.273. Muangthong United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.294 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Muangthong United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Muangthong United games / 8 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 41% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 35%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Police Tero 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 100% | Police Tero 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: SCG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 41% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Muangthong United 1.66 / Police Tero 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.294 / def 1.254 | Police Tero attack 0.949 / def 1.284 | league avg home 0.999 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Police Tero xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Police Tero kick off?
Muangthong United vs Police Tero kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at SCG Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Police Tero?
Muangthong United 2 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Muangthong United vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at SCG Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Police Tero part of?
Muangthong United vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 41% chance of winning, Police Tero a 35% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Muangthong United and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Muangthong United and Police Tero in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.38 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Police Tero (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.29x the league average against Police Tero's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Police Tero's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
41%
2.42
23%
4.26
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.18
1.52
Police Tero xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
7%
14.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.52 for Police Tero, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 3W 3D 2L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.50 PPG, Police Tero on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.50 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Police Tero away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.00 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Muangthong United and Police Tero runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Muangthong United's record when hosting Police Tero specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Muangthong United
0
Draws
2
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 4, Police Tero have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when Muangthong United 3-1 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Police Tero?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 100%, Police Tero 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Muangthong United and 50% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Police Tero in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Police Tero?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Muangthong United's games and 25% of Police Tero's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Muangthong United's matches and 50% of Police Tero's.
Do Muangthong United and Police Tero tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Police Tero 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Police Tero 2-1 at SCG Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.66 xG and Police Tero 1.52 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.29 / defence 1.25 against Police Tero attack 0.95 / defence 1.28, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 41% | Draw 23% | Police Tero 35%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 62%, Police Tero 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.50 PPG, Police Tero 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.