Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Lamphun Warrior, 1.50 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Ratchaburi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 3 for Ratchaburi and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–5 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 59% versus Ratchaburi 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 48% | Ratchaburi 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.52 xG and Ratchaburi 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.032 / defence 1.007 | Ratchaburi attack 1.303 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.086. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Lamphun Warrior games / 54 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 33%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.52 / Ratchaburi 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.032 / def 1.007 | Ratchaburi attack 1.303 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Ratchaburi xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 37% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Record (7 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 3W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.03) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (1.30x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 56/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.35
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.95
1.43
Ratchaburi xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
7%
13.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.43 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 12W 24D 18L from 54 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 14L across 54 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lamphun Warrior heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 7W 12D 6L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 12W 4D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.94 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 24D 18L in their last 54 games (1.11 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 28W 12D 14L in their last 54 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.32 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 5-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 64%, Ratchaburi 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lamphun Warrior) and 64% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 64% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 64% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Lamphun Warrior 1-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.52 xG and Ratchaburi 1.43 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.03 / defence 1.01 against Ratchaburi attack 1.30 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 37% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 33%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 48%, Ratchaburi 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.