Lamphun Warrior 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lamphun Warrior face Ratchaburi.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Lamphun Warrior's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Ratchaburi have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ratchaburi away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Lamphun Warrior, 0.90 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for Ratchaburi and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Ratchaburi — a Ratchaburi win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (last 35 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 63% versus Ratchaburi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 63% | Ratchaburi 51%). Note also that Ratchaburi surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Lamphun Warrior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.045 / defence 1.114 | Ratchaburi attack 0.800 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.265. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 35 games and Ratchaburi's last 35.

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 46% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 23%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.18 | Draw 3.18 | Ratchaburi 4.40. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Ratchaburi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 80% (last 10 home games) | Ratchaburi 30% (last 10 away games).

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