Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Prachuap travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.00 (Prachuap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Prachuap and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Prachuap winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 32% versus Prachuap 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 27% | Prachuap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.52 xG and Prachuap 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.866 / defence 1.102 | Prachuap attack 1.056 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.156. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Lamphun Warrior games / 52 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 32%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Prachuap 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Prachuap 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.52 / Prachuap 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.866 / def 1.102 | Prachuap attack 1.056 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Prachuap xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 40% chance of winning, Prachuap a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Record (1 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.55
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.86
1.34
Prachuap xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.34 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 4W 8D 10L from 22 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 11L across 22 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 0.91 PPG, Prachuap on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.27 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Prachuap away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Prachuap have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 40%, Prachuap 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lamphun Warrior) and 70% (Prachuap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 80% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 70% of Prachuap's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lamphun Warrior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap finished level at 0-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.52 xG and Prachuap 1.34 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Prachuap landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Prachuap attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 40% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 32%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 27%, Prachuap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Prachuap's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.91 PPG, Prachuap 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.