Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 48%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Prachuap travel to Lamphun Warriors Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior in Thai League 1 (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Lamphun Warrior's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Prachuap have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Prachuap have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Prachuap 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Prachuap — a Prachuap win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Prachuap in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 60% versus Prachuap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 60% | Prachuap 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.70 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.959 / defence 1.071 | Prachuap attack 0.923 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.144. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 42 games and Prachuap's last 43.

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 22%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.09 | Draw 3.37 | Prachuap 4.45. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 70% (last 10 home games) | Prachuap 40% (last 10 away games).

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