Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 38%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Lamphun Warrior welcome Port FC to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 January 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Port FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Port FC — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Port FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 0–3 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 67% versus Port FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 47% | Port FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.34 xG and Port FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.932 / defence 0.984 | Port FC attack 1.172 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 30 Port FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 38% | Draw 31% | Port FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Port FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Port FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 38% | Draw 31% | Port FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.34 / Port FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.932 / def 0.984 | Port FC attack 1.172 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Port FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 38% chance of winning, Port FC a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Record (8 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 2W | Draws 2 | Port FC 4W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.93) and Port FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
38%
2.60
31%
3.23
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.52
1.18
Port FC xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.18 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 4W 17D 9L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. Lamphun Warrior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Port FC's form line: 18W 6D 6L from 30 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. Port FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamphun Warrior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (2W 10D 3L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.97 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Pre-Season
Port FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Port FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 9L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Port FC have gone 18W 6D 6L in their last 30 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.07 PPG; Port FC away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Lamphun Warrior or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamphun Warrior have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Port FC in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Mar 2026, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 73%, Port FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lamphun Warrior) and 33% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 33%; Port FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 40% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 33% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Port FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Port FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.