Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours Buriram United — this Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Mae Guang Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Buriram United in Thai League 1 (matchday 16). Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 11:00 UK time.

Form

Lamphun Warrior (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Lamphun Warrior at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Buriram United's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Buriram United have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.70 for Buriram United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) — Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Buriram United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Buriram United, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Lamphun Warrior 0–3 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.

Buriram United have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading Data

Lamphun Warrior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Buriram United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 49% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 49% | Buriram United 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.69 xG and Buriram United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.219 / defence 0.925 | Buriram United attack 0.994 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.329. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 45 games and Buriram United's last 45.

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 47% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 27%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.11 | Draw 3.83 | Buriram United 3.77. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 80% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights