Kanchanaburi 1-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kanchanaburi at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sukhothai FC make the trip to Kanchanaburi Province Stadium to face Kanchanaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kanchanaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kanchanaburi's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Kanchanaburi against 0.90 for Sukhothai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kanchanaburi lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kanchanaburi — key trading statistics (24 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kanchanaburi 54% versus Sukhothai FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kanchanaburi 46% | Sukhothai FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kanchanaburi 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kanchanaburi attack 0.755 / defence 1.412 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.663 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.147. Kanchanaburi's attack strength of 0.755 is below the league average — the 1.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Kanchanaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Kanchanaburi games / 53 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 46% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Kanchanaburi 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Sukhothai FC 4.35. Kanchanaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kanchanaburi at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kanchanaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Kanchanaburi 50% | Sukhothai FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kanchanaburi Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kanchanaburi 46% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Kanchanaburi 1.58 / Sukhothai FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Kanchanaburi attack 0.755 / def 1.412 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.663 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Kanchanaburi (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Kanchanaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sukhothai FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Kanchanaburi 1 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium.
What competition is Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Kanchanaburi a 46% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kanchanaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Record (1 meetings): Kanchanaburi 0W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC in?
Kanchanaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kanchanaburi's attack rating (0.76) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.66x) against Kanchanaburi's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 24/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kanchanaburi Win
46%
2.15
30%
3.30
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Kanchanaburi xG
Total xG
2.66
1.07
Sukhothai FC xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
5%
21.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Kanchanaburi and 1.07 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kanchanaburi's recent record stands at 3W 10D 11L from 24 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 9L across 24 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Kanchanaburi against 1.04 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kanchanaburi have managed 2W 5D 3L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sukhothai FC's away record stands at 0W 3D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kanchanaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kanchanaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.92 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kanchanaburi
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Kanchanaburi have gone 3W 10D 11L in their last 24 games (0.79 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 10D 9L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kanchanaburi at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Kanchanaburi's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kanchanaburi at home: 1.10 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kanchanaburi
1
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Kanchanaburi have won 1, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kanchanaburi 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Kanchanaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kanchanaburi 50%, Sukhothai FC 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Kanchanaburi) and 40% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Kanchanaburi have failed to score in 30% of games; Sukhothai FC in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kanchanaburi home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kanchanaburi play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kanchanaburi's recent matches and 30% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kanchanaburi vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Kanchanaburi's recent games and 40% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kanchanaburi and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Kanchanaburi have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kanchanaburi edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kanchanaburi beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at Kanchanaburi Province Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kanchanaburi 1.58 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kanchanaburi attack 0.76 / defence 1.41 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.66 / defence 1.40, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kanchanaburi 46% | Draw 30% | Sukhothai FC 23%, with Kanchanaburi to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kanchanaburi 46%, Sukhothai FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kanchanaburi 0.79 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kanchanaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.