Chonburi FC 1-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chonburi FC face Uthai Thani.

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Full Analysis

IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium plays host to Chonburi FC versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Chonburi FC have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Chonburi FC at home: 3W 3D 3L from their last 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Uthai Thani (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Uthai Thani away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Chonburi FC, 1.70 for Uthai Thani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Chonburi FC's last 9 home games and Uthai Thani's last 10 away games) — Chonburi FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Uthai Thani in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Chonburi FC 1–1 Uthai Thani — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Chonburi FC — key trading statistics (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 58% and Uthai Thani 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 42% | Uthai Thani 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chonburi FC surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Uthai Thani have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.67 xG and Uthai Thani 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.949 / defence 1.132 | Uthai Thani attack 0.965 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.088. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 19 games and Uthai Thani's last 49.

Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 48% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 27%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.07 | Draw 4.06 | Uthai Thani 3.71. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chonburi FC's last 9 home games and Uthai Thani's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 67% (last 9 home games) | Uthai Thani 70% (last 10 away games).

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