Chonburi FC 3-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Chonburi Stadium to face Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chonburi FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 4W 2D 1L at Chonburi Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Chonburi FC, 1.40 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 57% versus Ratchaburi 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Ratchaburi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.51 xG and Ratchaburi 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 1.183 / defence 1.103 | Ratchaburi attack 0.720 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.127. Ratchaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Chonburi FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Chonburi FC games / 14 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 52% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 4.55. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Chonburi FC 71% | Ratchaburi 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Chonburi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 52% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Chonburi FC 1.51 / Ratchaburi 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 1.183 / def 1.103 | Ratchaburi attack 0.720 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ratchaburi xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Chonburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Chonburi FC 3 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 52% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (1.18) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.72x) against Chonburi FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.84
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.40
0.90
Ratchaburi xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
5%
20.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 0.90 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 7W 4D 3L from 14 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 6L across 14 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chonburi FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.36 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 games (1.79 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Chonburi FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ratchaburi have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won 3-0 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 71%, Ratchaburi 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Chonburi FC) and 43% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Chonburi FC's games and 57% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 43% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chonburi FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Ratchaburi 3-0 at Chonburi Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.51 xG and Ratchaburi 0.90 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Ratchaburi attack 0.72 / defence 1.22, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 52% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 50%, Ratchaburi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.