Chonburi FC 2-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Chiangrai United — this Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Chiangrai United travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chonburi FC at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Chiangrai United have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chonburi FC 1.20 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Chiangrai United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Chonburi FC.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Chonburi FC 1–1 Chiangrai United — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Chiangrai United have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Chonburi FC trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Chiangrai United trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chonburi FC 58% and Chiangrai United 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 52% | Chiangrai United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.46 xG and Chiangrai United 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.023 | Chiangrai United attack 0.913 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.150. Data: built from Chonburi FC's last 52 games and Chiangrai United's last 52.
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 44% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 26%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 2.25 | Draw 3.42 | Chiangrai United 3.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chonburi FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 44% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Chonburi FC 1.46 / Chiangrai United 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.947 / def 1.023 | Chiangrai United attack 0.913 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Chiangrai United xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United FAQs
What time does Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Chonburi FC 2 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 23) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 44% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.95) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chonburi FC's last 52 games and Chiangrai United's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.42
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.07
Chiangrai United xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
6%
16.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.07 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC's recent record stands at 18W 11D 23L from 52 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 18L across 52 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.25 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chonburi FC have managed 12W 5D 8L from their last 25 home games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 5W 8D 12L across their last 25 away games, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.31 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 67%.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
Chonburi FC (Home) vs Chiangrai United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chonburi FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United Form FAQs
What form are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 18W 11D 23L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.64 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
3
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Chonburi FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Chiangrai United 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 52%, Chiangrai United 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chonburi FC) and 68% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chonburi FC vs Chiangrai United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Chonburi FC's games and 72% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Chonburi FC's matches and 68% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Chonburi FC and Chiangrai United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 80% of Chiangrai United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Chiangrai United 2-0 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.46 xG and Chiangrai United 1.07 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.02 against Chiangrai United attack 0.91 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 44% | Draw 29% | Chiangrai United 26%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 52%, Chiangrai United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.25 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.