Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Chonburi FC welcome Ayutthaya FC to IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 December 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chonburi FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chonburi FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Ayutthaya FC's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chonburi FC, 1 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 58% versus Ayutthaya FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 50% | Ayutthaya FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 0.92 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.901 / defence 1.071 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / defence 0.709. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ayutthaya FC's defence strength of 0.709 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ayutthaya FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 Chonburi FC games / 37 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 17% | Draw 24% | Ayutthaya FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Ayutthaya FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Ayutthaya FC (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ayutthaya FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 60% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 17% | Draw 24% | Ayutthaya FC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Chonburi FC 0.92 / Ayutthaya FC 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.901 / def 1.071 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.208 / def 0.709 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Ayutthaya FC xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 17% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Chonburi FC 1W | Draws 0 | Ayutthaya FC 1W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chonburi FC's attack at 0.90x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
17%
5.84
24%
4.21
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.89
Ayutthaya FC xG
5.84
17%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
38.45
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.89 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Chonburi FC have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 11W 9D 16L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.17 PPG, Ayutthaya FC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chonburi FC have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 5D 4L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 games (1.17 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.28 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chonburi FC
0
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Chonburi FC 0-1 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 61%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Chonburi FC) and 44% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 33%; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Chonburi FC's games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chonburi FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 44% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.