Chiangrai United 3-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangrai United vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chiangrai United and Prachuap meet at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 February 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chiangrai United have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at LEO Chiangrai Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at LEO Chiangrai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Chiangrai United, 1.00 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Prachuap in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Chiangrai United 1W, Prachuap 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangrai United 53% versus Prachuap 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 45% | Prachuap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.80 xG and Prachuap 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.077 / defence 0.884 | Prachuap attack 1.033 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.195. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Chiangrai United games / 47 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 53% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 21%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Prachuap 4.76. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 60% | Prachuap 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 53% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Chiangrai United 1.80 / Prachuap 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.077 / def 0.884 | Prachuap attack 1.033 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Prachuap xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Prachuap kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Chiangrai United 3 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Prachuap part of?
Chiangrai United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 53% chance of winning, Prachuap a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Chiangrai United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Prachuap?
Record (3 meetings): Chiangrai United 1W | Draws 0 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Chiangrai United and Prachuap in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 1.08x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.03x) against Chiangrai United's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.85
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.89
1.09
Prachuap xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
28.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.09 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Chiangrai United have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 20W 14D 13L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 12W 12D 23L from 47 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chiangrai United are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chiangrai United have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 6W 4D 13L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.09 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 20W 14D 13L in their last 47 games (1.57 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Prachuap away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.52 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Chiangrai United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Prachuap in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chiangrai United have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
2
Draws
5
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 3, Prachuap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Prachuap 3-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangrai United 48%, Prachuap 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Chiangrai United) and 65% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 30% of games; Prachuap in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 61% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangrai United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 65% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chiangrai United edge out Prachuap 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Prachuap 3-2 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.80 xG and Prachuap 1.09 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.08 / defence 0.88 against Prachuap attack 1.03 / defence 1.24, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 53% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 21%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 45%, Prachuap 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.