Chiangrai United 0-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Muangthong United at Singha Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.29 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Singha Stadium, Chiangrai United have gone 1W 2D 1L this season (4 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.25 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Singha Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Muangthong United stand at 2W 3D 2L from 7 Thai League 1 matches — 1.29 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 1.57. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.29 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.71 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.29. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chiangrai United register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Muangthong United in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 43% of cases; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 71% and Muangthong United 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Chiangrai United 71% | Muangthong United 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.43 xG and Muangthong United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.022 / defence 1.273 | Muangthong United attack 0.742 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 1.291. Muangthong United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Chiangrai United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Chiangrai United games / 7 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 41% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 32%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Muangthong United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Chiangrai United 75% | Muangthong United 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Singha Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 41% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Chiangrai United 1.43 / Muangthong United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.022 / def 1.273 | Muangthong United attack 0.742 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.030 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Muangthong United xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Singha Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Chiangrai United 0 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Singha Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United part of?
Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 41% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chiangrai United and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United in?
Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 2W-3D-2L in 7 | 1.29 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 1.02x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.73
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.64
1.22
Muangthong United xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.22 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chiangrai United come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 2D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (2W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chiangrai United's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.71 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Muangthong United in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangrai United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 2W 3D 2L in their last 7 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangrai United at home or Muangthong United away?
Chiangrai United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangrai United at home: 1.33 PPG; Muangthong United away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Muangthong United go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Chiangrai United
1
Draws
5
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Chiangrai United have won 4, Muangthong United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Muangthong United 2-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangrai United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Chiangrai United at 67%, Muangthong United at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Chiangrai United and 67% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United have failed to score in 33% of games; Muangthong United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangrai United play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Chiangrai United's games and 67% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chiangrai United vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chiangrai United's matches and 67% of Muangthong United's.
Do Chiangrai United and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Chiangrai United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Muangthong United defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Chiangrai United 0-1 at Singha Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.43 xG and Muangthong United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chiangrai United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.02 / defence 1.27 against Muangthong United attack 0.74 / defence 1.35, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 41% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 32%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Muangthong United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 71%, Muangthong United 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangrai United's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Muangthong United's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Muangthong United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.