Chiangmai United 1-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Chiangmai United welcome Ratchaburi to 700th Anniversary Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangmai United stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chiangmai United have posted 1W 1D 8L at 700th Anniversary Stadium — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ratchaburi are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chiangmai United, 1 for Ratchaburi and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chiangmai United trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ratchaburi trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangmai United 57% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 52% | Ratchaburi 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 0.93 xG and Ratchaburi 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.822 / defence 1.530 | Ratchaburi attack 0.669 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.089. Data: 21 Chiangmai United games / 21 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 30% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 40%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chiangmai United 50% | Ratchaburi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 30% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Chiangmai United 0.93 / Ratchaburi 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.822 / def 1.530 | Ratchaburi attack 0.669 / def 1.136 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi?
Chiangmai United 1 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 30% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangmai United 0W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chiangmai United's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Chiangmai United's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.30
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.04
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.11 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangmai United come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 4D 14L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Chiangmai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Chiangmai United's home form reads 1W 1D 8L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Ratchaburi have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
The Goals Picture
Chiangmai United are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.05 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 3W 4D 14L in their last 21 games (0.62 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangmai United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangmai United at home: 0.40 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangmai United
0
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 0, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangmai United 50%, Ratchaburi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Chiangmai United) and 40% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Chiangmai United have failed to score in 40% of games; Ratchaburi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chiangmai United's recent matches and 40% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangmai United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chiangmai United's recent games and 40% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangmai United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Chiangmai United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Chiangmai United 1-2 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 0.93 xG and Ratchaburi 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.82 / defence 1.53 against Ratchaburi attack 0.67 / defence 1.14, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 30% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 40%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 52%, Ratchaburi 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.