Chiangmai United 1-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Muangthong United at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Muangthong United travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Chiangmai United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangmai United stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangmai United at 700th Anniversary Stadium this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Muangthong United's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Chiangmai United's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chiangmai United, 1 for Muangthong United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Muangthong United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chiangmai United trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Muangthong United trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangmai United 62% and Muangthong United 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangmai United 54% | Muangthong United 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 0.86 xG and Muangthong United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.809 / defence 1.499 | Muangthong United attack 0.764 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.177. Data: 27 Chiangmai United games / 26 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 22% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 46%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Muangthong United 2.17. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chiangmai United 60% | Muangthong United 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 22% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Chiangmai United 0.86 / Muangthong United 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.809 / def 1.499 | Muangthong United attack 0.764 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Muangthong United xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United kick off?
Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United?
Chiangmai United 1 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United part of?
Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 22% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Chiangmai United and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Muangthong United?
Record (1 meetings): Chiangmai United 0W | Draws 0 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are Chiangmai United and Muangthong United in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chiangmai United's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Muangthong United's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Chiangmai United's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
22%
4.52
32%
3.17
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.21
1.35
Muangthong United xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
6%
17.42
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.8 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.35 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Chiangmai United have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 3W 6D 17L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United's form line: 11W 9D 6L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Muangthong United are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangmai United.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chiangmai United have posted 0.42 PPG from 12 outings (1W 2D 9L).
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chiangmai United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.54 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangmai United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Muangthong United in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 3W 6D 17L in their last 26 games (0.58 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 11W 9D 6L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chiangmai United at home or Muangthong United away?
Muangthong United's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chiangmai United at home: 0.42 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangmai United
1
Draws
1
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and Muangthong United?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 0, Muangthong United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangmai United and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangmai United 58%, Muangthong United 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Chiangmai United and 25% for Muangthong United.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United in 42%; Chiangmai United have failed to score in 33% of games; Muangthong United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Chiangmai United's recent matches and 42% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangmai United vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Chiangmai United's recent games and 25% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangmai United and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chiangmai United and Muangthong United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Chiangmai United and Muangthong United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 0.86 xG and Muangthong United 1.35 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.81 / defence 1.50 against Muangthong United attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 22% | Draw 32% | Muangthong United 46%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 54%, Muangthong United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Muangthong United's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chiangmai United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.