Chiangmai United 1-3 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to 700th Anniversary Stadium to face Chiangmai United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chiangmai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 5L from 9 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangmai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangmai United's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 games at 700th Anniversary Stadium this term (0.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
BG Pathum United have collected 2.00 PPG across 8 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. BG Pathum United are 1.33 PPG clear of Chiangmai United in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 0.67). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Chiangmai United — key trading statistics (8 games): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (8 games): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chiangmai United 50% versus BG Pathum United 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chiangmai United 38% | BG Pathum United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangmai United 0.64 xG and BG Pathum United 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangmai United attack 0.654 / defence 1.256 | BG Pathum United attack 0.868 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.006 / away 1.265. Chiangmai United's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Chiangmai United games / 8 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chiangmai United 17% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 55%. Fair-value odds: Chiangmai United 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | BG Pathum United 1.82. The model has a clear lean to BG Pathum United (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Chiangmai United's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BG Pathum United as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chiangmai United 50% | BG Pathum United 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangmai United 17% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 35% | xG Chiangmai United 0.64 / BG Pathum United 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangmai United attack 0.654 / def 1.256 | BG Pathum United attack 0.868 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.006 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Chiangmai United xG
Expected Goals
1.38
BG Pathum United xG
35%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United?
Chiangmai United 1 - 3 BG Pathum United.
Where is Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United part of?
Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Chiangmai United a 17% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United in?
Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.78 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. BG Pathum United (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chiangmai United's attack at 0.65x the league average against BG Pathum United's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (0.87x) against Chiangmai United's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
17%
5.82
28%
3.59
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
0 – 2
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Chiangmai United xG
Total xG
2.01
1.38
BG Pathum United xG
5.82
17%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
53%
1.89
Win to Nil
4%
23.10
29%
3.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 18.4 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Chiangmai United and 1.38 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Chiangmai United have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 3D 4L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chiangmai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chiangmai United.
Attack vs Defence
Chiangmai United are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: BG Pathum United in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangmai United
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Chiangmai United have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Have Chiangmai United or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangmai United have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chiangmai United
0
Draws
2
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United?
From 2 meetings on record, Chiangmai United have won 0, BG Pathum United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2022, when BG Pathum United 4-1 Chiangmai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chiangmai United 50%, BG Pathum United 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chiangmai United) and 38% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 38%; Chiangmai United have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangmai United home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chiangmai United play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chiangmai United's recent matches and 38% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chiangmai United vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chiangmai United's recent games and 38% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangmai United and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Chiangmai United have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chiangmai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Chiangmai United 1-3 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangmai United 0.64 xG and BG Pathum United 1.38 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. BG Pathum United outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangmai United attack 0.65 / defence 1.26 against BG Pathum United attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chiangmai United 17% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 55%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangmai United 38%, BG Pathum United 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chiangmai United's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (8 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chiangmai United shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BG Pathum United scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.