Buriram United 0-0 Suphanburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Buriram United vs Suphanburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Buriram United host Suphanburi at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.16 xG and Suphanburi 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Suphanburi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.346. Data: 0 Buriram United games / 0 Suphanburi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Buriram United 29% | Draw 35% | Suphanburi 36%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Suphanburi 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suphanburi as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suphanburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Suphanburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 29% | Draw 35% | Suphanburi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Buriram United 1.16 / Suphanburi 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Suphanburi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Suphanburi xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Suphanburi kick off?
Buriram United vs Suphanburi kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Suphanburi?
Buriram United 0 - 0 Suphanburi.
Where is Buriram United vs Suphanburi being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Suphanburi part of?
Buriram United vs Suphanburi is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Suphanburi?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 29% chance of winning, Suphanburi a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Suphanburi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Buriram United and Suphanburi will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Suphanburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Suphanburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Buriram United and Suphanburi in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Suphanburi's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suphanburi's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
29%
3.47
35%
2.88
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.47
1.32
Suphanburi xG
3.47
29%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Suphanburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Suphanburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.32 for Suphanburi, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Suphanburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Pre-Season
Suphanburi
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Buriram United and Suphanburi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Buriram United
1
Draws
1
Suphanburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Suphanburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 0, Suphanburi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Suphanburi last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2022, when Suphanburi 2-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Suphanburi?
Suphanburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Suphanburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Buriram United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United and Suphanburi finished level at 0-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.16 xG and Suphanburi 1.32 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Buriram United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Suphanburi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Suphanburi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 29% | Draw 35% | Suphanburi 36%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.