Buriram United 2-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Buriram United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Buriram United and Ratchaburi meet at Chang Arena in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Buriram United (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's home record at Chang Arena: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chang Arena.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Buriram United's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Ratchaburi's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Buriram United, 0 for Ratchaburi and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Buriram United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Buriram United — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 30% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 44% | Ratchaburi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.32 xG and Ratchaburi 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.185 / defence 0.979 | Ratchaburi attack 0.759 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 1.065. Data: 23 Buriram United games / 23 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 49% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 22%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 4.55. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 40% | Ratchaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 49% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Buriram United 1.32 / Ratchaburi 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.185 / def 0.979 | Ratchaburi attack 0.759 / def 1.162 | league avg home 0.961 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Ratchaburi xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Buriram United 2 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Buriram United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 49% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Buriram United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Buriram United 1W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Buriram United's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.76x) against Buriram United's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
49%
2.06
30%
3.38
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.12
0.79
Ratchaburi xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.6 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Buriram United and 0.79 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Buriram United's recent record stands at 16W 3D 4L from 23 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 9L across 23 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Buriram United have managed 8W 2D 1L from 11 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 2W 4D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Buriram United are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.04 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 16W 3D 4L in their last 23 games (2.22 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Buriram United's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.36 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Buriram United have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Buriram United
3
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 6, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Ratchaburi?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Buriram United see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 36%, Ratchaburi 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Buriram United) and 46% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Buriram United's recent matches and 46% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Buriram United's recent games and 46% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Buriram United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Ratchaburi 2-0 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.32 xG and Ratchaburi 0.79 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.19 / defence 0.98 against Ratchaburi attack 0.76 / defence 1.16, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 49% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 22%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 44%, Ratchaburi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.