Buriram United 8-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Buriram United (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Buriram United face Chiangrai United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Buriram United welcome Chiangrai United to Chang Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Buriram United — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Buriram United have posted 8W 1D 1L at Chang Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Buriram United have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Buriram United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chiangrai United in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Buriram United: 7 wins from 9 previous clashes against 0 for Chiangrai United, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Buriram United winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Buriram United and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Buriram United 52% versus Chiangrai United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Buriram United 67% | Chiangrai United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Buriram United 1.84 xG and Chiangrai United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Buriram United attack 1.273 / defence 0.816 | Chiangrai United attack 1.146 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.113. Buriram United carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Buriram United games / 46 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 20%. Fair-value odds: Buriram United 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Chiangrai United 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Buriram United 60% | Chiangrai United 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Buriram United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Chang Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Buriram United 1.84 / Chiangrai United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Buriram United attack 1.273 / def 0.816 | Chiangrai United attack 1.146 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Buriram United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chiangrai United xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Buriram United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Buriram United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Chang Arena.
What was the final score in Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Buriram United 8 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Chang Arena.
What competition is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Buriram United vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Buriram United a 55% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Buriram United and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Buriram United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
Record (9 meetings): Buriram United 7W | Draws 2 | Chiangrai United 0W.
What form are Buriram United and Chiangrai United in?
Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Chiangrai United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Buriram United's attack at 1.27x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Buriram United's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.05
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Buriram United xG
Total xG
2.89
1.04
Chiangrai United xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
3%
31.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Buriram United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Buriram United and 1.04 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Buriram United vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Buriram United come into this having played 46 games, going 35W 6D 5L for 2.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.26 PPG from 46 outings (16W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Buriram United's home form reads 19W 2D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.70 points per game from 23 outings (3W 7D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Buriram United are averaging 2.78 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.13 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Buriram United
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Buriram United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Buriram United have gone 35W 6D 5L in their last 46 games (2.41 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 16W 10D 20L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Buriram United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Buriram United's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Buriram United at home: 2.57 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Buriram United or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Buriram United have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Jan 2025, when Buriram United won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Buriram United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Buriram United
2
Draws
0
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Buriram United have won 8, Chiangrai United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Buriram United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Buriram United 8-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Buriram United and Chiangrai United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Buriram United 39%, Chiangrai United 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Buriram United) and 48% (Chiangrai United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Buriram United keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Buriram United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Buriram United play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Buriram United's recent matches and 65% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Buriram United vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Buriram United's matches and 48% of Chiangrai United's.
Do Buriram United and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Buriram United have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 8-1 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Chiangrai United 8-1 at Chang Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Buriram United 1.84 xG and Chiangrai United 1.04 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 8-1 for 9 actual goals. Buriram United beat their projection by 6.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Buriram United attack 1.27 / defence 0.82 against Chiangrai United attack 1.15 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Buriram United 55% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 20%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Buriram United 67%, Chiangrai United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Buriram United's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 8 against a 3.26 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 8 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.