BG Pathum United 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to BG Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BG Pathum United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BG Stadium, BG Pathum United have gone 6W 0D 2L this season (8 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BG Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — BG Pathum United are significantly better at BG Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's away record: 0W 4D 3L from 7 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BG Pathum United 1.60 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for BG Pathum United, 1 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2021, ended 1–3 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 41% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 35% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.17 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.916 / defence 1.029 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.874 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.157. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing BG Pathum United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 BG Pathum United games / 17 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 39% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 32%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BG Pathum United at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: BG Pathum United 25% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 71%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 39% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG BG Pathum United 1.17 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.916 / def 1.029 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.874 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
BG Pathum United 1 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 39% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (1 meetings): BG Pathum United 0W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
BG Pathum United's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.45
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.21
1.04
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.33
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.04 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BG Pathum United's recent record stands at 8W 5D 4L from 17 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 6L across 17 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BG Pathum United on 1.71 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, BG Pathum United have managed 5W 0D 2L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's away record stands at 0W 4D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.35 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 7W 4D 6L in their last 17 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.14 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.57 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
3
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 0, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 29%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (BG Pathum United) and 43% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; BG Pathum United have failed to score in 29% of games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 71% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 43% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United and Nong Bua Pitchaya finished level at 1-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.17 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.92 / defence 1.03 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.87 / defence 1.27, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 39% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 32%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 35%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.71 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.