BG Pathum United 1-0 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Buriram United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this BG Pathum United vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BG Pathum United host Buriram United at LEO Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BG Pathum United — All Games: 6W 1D 2L from 9 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.11 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BG Pathum United have posted 4W 0D 2L at LEO Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 1L across 4 road games this term (2.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: BG Pathum United 2.11 PPG, Buriram United 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 44% versus Buriram United 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 44% | Buriram United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 0.92 xG and Buriram United 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 0.883 / defence 1.090 | Buriram United attack 0.961 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.313. Data: 9 BG Pathum United games / 10 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 25% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 47%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Buriram United 2.13. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: BG Pathum United 33% | Buriram United 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: LEO Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 25% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG BG Pathum United 0.92 / Buriram United 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 0.883 / def 1.090 | Buriram United attack 0.961 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Buriram United xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Buriram United kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at LEO Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
BG Pathum United 1 - 0 Buriram United.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at LEO Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Buriram United part of?
BG Pathum United vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 25% chance of winning, Buriram United a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both BG Pathum United and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Buriram United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are BG Pathum United and Buriram United in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
BG Pathum United's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
25%
3.97
27%
3.64
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.30
1.38
Buriram United xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
6%
15.68
19%
5.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.8 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.38 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BG Pathum United come into this having played 9 games, going 6W 1D 2L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.67 PPG from 9 outings (8W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
BG Pathum United's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.11 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.25 points per game from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's a step down from their 2.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Buriram United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.11 scored and 0.56 conceded. Buriram United's attacking output running into BG Pathum United's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Buriram United in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Buriram United in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 6W 1D 2L in their last 9 games (2.11 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 8W 0D 1L in their last 9 (2.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 1.50 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.25 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Buriram United in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
BG Pathum United
4
Draws
3
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 3, Buriram United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when BG Pathum United 1-3 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Buriram United tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — BG Pathum United 25% BTTS, Buriram United 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (BG Pathum United) and 25% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 50%; BG Pathum United have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 25% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 25% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Buriram United tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BG Pathum United defy the odds to beat Buriram United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Buriram United 1-0 at LEO Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 0.92 xG and Buriram United 1.38 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Buriram United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Buriram United attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 9/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 25% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 47%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a BG Pathum United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 44%, Buriram United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Buriram United's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 2.11. Form was overturned, with BG Pathum United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.