Bangkok United 1-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bangkok United at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya meet at Thammasat Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bangkok United have collected 2.11 PPG across 9 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 0.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bangkok United have posted 3W 1D 0L at Thammasat Stadium — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thammasat Stadium.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 4L from 8 games (1.25 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.25 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Bangkok United's 2.11 PPG return is 0.86 points per game ahead of Nong Bua Pitchaya's 1.25 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Bangkok United half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bangkok United 50% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bangkok United 38% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bangkok United 1.37 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bangkok United attack 1.055 / defence 0.818 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.641 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.033 / away 1.322. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Bangkok United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Bangkok United games / 8 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bangkok United 53% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 19%. Fair-value odds: Bangkok United 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 5.26. Bangkok United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bangkok United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bangkok United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bangkok United 50% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Thammasat Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bangkok United 53% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Bangkok United 1.37 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bangkok United attack 1.055 / def 0.818 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.641 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.033 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Bangkok United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Bangkok United xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Thammasat Stadium.
What was the final score in Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Bangkok United 1 - 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Thammasat Stadium.
What competition is Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Bangkok United a 53% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bangkok United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Bangkok United (all comps): 6W-1D-2L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bangkok United's attack at 1.05x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.64x) against Bangkok United's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bangkok United Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.58
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Bangkok United xG
Total xG
2.06
0.69
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
5%
20.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Bangkok United and 0.69 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bangkok United come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 1D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (3W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bangkok United's home form reads 3W 0D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Bangkok United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bangkok United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bangkok United are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bangkok United
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Bangkok United have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bangkok United at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Bangkok United's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bangkok United at home: 3.00 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Bangkok United or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bangkok United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bangkok United have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bangkok United have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bangkok United
1
Draws
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Bangkok United have won 4, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Bangkok United 1-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bangkok United 33%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bangkok United and 33% for Nong Bua Pitchaya.
On the defensive side: Bangkok United keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bangkok United home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bangkok United play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Bangkok United's recent matches and 67% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bangkok United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bangkok United's recent games and 33% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Bangkok United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thammasat Stadium, Regular Season - 10, as Bangkok United and Nong Bua Pitchaya drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bangkok United 1.37 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.69 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bangkok United attack 1.05 / defence 0.82 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.64 / defence 1.26, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bangkok United 53% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 19%, with Bangkok United to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bangkok United 38%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bangkok United's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.