Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Uthai Thani travel to Ayutthaya Province Stadium to take on Ayutthaya FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Ayutthaya FC have gone 1W 4D 3L this season (8 games, 0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.88 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Uthai Thani — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ayutthaya FC 1.50 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ayutthaya FC, 0 for Uthai Thani and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ayutthaya FC trading profile (16 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Uthai Thani trading profile (16 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 81% and Uthai Thani 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 62% | Uthai Thani 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.56 xG and Uthai Thani 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.313 | Uthai Thani attack 1.054 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.172. Data: 16 Ayutthaya FC games / 46 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 36% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 38%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 100% | Uthai Thani 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 36% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.56 / Uthai Thani 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.918 / def 1.313 | Uthai Thani attack 1.054 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Uthai Thani xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Ayutthaya FC 0 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 36% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (1 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
36%
2.82
26%
3.80
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
3.18
1.62
Uthai Thani xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
7%
14.27
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.62 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 5W 6D 5L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani's form line: 4W 5D 7L from 16 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ayutthaya FC on 1.31 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That actually lags their 1.31 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.75 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Uthai Thani in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.83 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 0-1 Uthai Thani.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 100%, Uthai Thani at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ayutthaya FC and 83% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 100% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ayutthaya FC's matches and 83% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Uthai Thani edge out Ayutthaya FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Ayutthaya FC 0-1 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.56 xG and Uthai Thani 1.62 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Uthai Thani attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 36% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 38%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 62%, Uthai Thani 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (16 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (16 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.31 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.