Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ayutthaya Province Stadium plays host to Ayutthaya FC versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ayutthaya FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 games at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ayutthaya FC 1W, Sukhothai FC 0W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 3–0 with Ayutthaya FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ayutthaya FC 60% versus Sukhothai FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 49% | Sukhothai FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.62 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.058 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Ayutthaya FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Ayutthaya FC games / 37 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 46% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Sukhothai FC 3.70. Ayutthaya FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ayutthaya FC 40% | Sukhothai FC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 46% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.62 / Sukhothai FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.860 / def 1.058 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.774 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sukhothai FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 46% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Ayutthaya FC 1W | Draws 2 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.77x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.78
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.19
Sukhothai FC xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
5%
18.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.19 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 12W 9D 16L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 9W 10D 18L from 37 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Ayutthaya FC against 1.00 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.72 PPG from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L). That actually lags their 1.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 4D 13L from 18 away games — 0.39 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.89 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.72 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ayutthaya FC won 0-3 on 1 Nov 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
2
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Sukhothai FC 0-3 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC?
Ayutthaya FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ayutthaya FC 67%, Sukhothai FC 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ayutthaya FC) and 33% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Sukhothai FC in 72%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ayutthaya FC's recent matches and 28% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 33% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.