Lausanne 1-1 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lausanne at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs Grasshoppers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Grasshoppers at Stade de la Tuiliere in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuiliere: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Grasshoppers have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Lausanne have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lausanne, 1 for Grasshoppers and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Grasshoppers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Grasshoppers in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 59% versus Grasshoppers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 60% | Grasshoppers 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.93 xG and Grasshoppers 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.032 / defence 1.046 | Grasshoppers attack 0.905 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.545. Data: 53 Lausanne games / 53 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 49% | Draw 22% | Grasshoppers 29%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.04 | Draw 4.55 | Grasshoppers 3.45. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 70% | Grasshoppers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 49% | Draw 22% | Grasshoppers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Lausanne 1.93 / Grasshoppers 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.032 / def 1.046 | Grasshoppers attack 0.905 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.545 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Grasshoppers xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Lausanne 1 - 1 Grasshoppers.
Where is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers part of?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 49% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 29% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lausanne and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Record (6 meetings): Lausanne 2W | Draws 3 | Grasshoppers 1W.
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in?
Lausanne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
49%
2.06
22%
4.53
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.39
1.46
Grasshoppers xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
4%
23.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.46 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne's recent record stands at 21W 17D 20L from 58 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 28L across 58 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.38 PPG, Grasshoppers on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 14W 5D 10L from 29 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grasshoppers's away record stands at 6W 6D 17L across 29 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.22 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 games (1.38 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 14W 16D 28L in their last 58 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Grasshoppers away?
Lausanne's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.62 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lausanne
5
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 3, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 59%, Grasshoppers 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Lausanne) and 45% (Grasshoppers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Grasshoppers in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Grasshoppers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lausanne's recent matches and 48% of Grasshoppers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Lausanne's matches and 45% of Grasshoppers's.
Do Lausanne and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and Grasshoppers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne and Grasshoppers finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.93 xG and Grasshoppers 1.46 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Grasshoppers attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 49% | Draw 22% | Grasshoppers 29%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, Grasshoppers 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.38 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.