Lausanne 2-2 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face Grasshoppers.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Grasshoppers at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lausanne stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lausanne's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lausanne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Grasshoppers have recorded 2W 7D 1L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Grasshoppers away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lausanne at 1.60 PPG versus Grasshoppers's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lausanne have won 1, Grasshoppers 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2025, ended Lausanne 2–2 Grasshoppers — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Grasshoppers in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 56% versus Grasshoppers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 56% | Grasshoppers 42%). Note also that Grasshoppers surrender HT leads in 53% of cases while Lausanne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.29 xG and Grasshoppers 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.072 / defence 0.859 | Grasshoppers attack 0.801 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.205. Grasshoppers bring a tight defence (rating 0.733, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lausanne's projected output down. Data: built from Lausanne's last 57 games and Grasshoppers's last 57.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 32% | Grasshoppers 22%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.19 | Draw 3.12 | Grasshoppers 4.49. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 10 home games and Grasshoppers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 40% (last 10 home games) | Grasshoppers 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 32% | Grasshoppers 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lausanne 1.29 / Grasshoppers 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.072 / def 0.859 | Grasshoppers attack 0.801 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Grasshoppers xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Lausanne 2 - 2 Grasshoppers.
Where is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers part of?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers is a Super League fixture (matchday 25) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 46% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lausanne and Grasshoppers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lausanne vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 57 games and Grasshoppers's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.12
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.12
0.83
Grasshoppers xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lausanne and 0.83 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne's recent record stands at 21W 18D 23L from 62 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 29L across 62 games — 1.02 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.31 PPG, Grasshoppers on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 15W 8D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grasshoppers's away record stands at 6W 7D 18L across their last 31 away games, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.05 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs Grasshoppers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 15W 18D 29L in their last 62 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Grasshoppers away?
Lausanne's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.71 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won Lausanne 3-0 Grasshoppers.
Lausanne's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
6
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 2, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Grasshoppers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Grasshoppers 1-1 Lausanne.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 48%, Grasshoppers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lausanne) and 36% (Grasshoppers).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Grasshoppers in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs Grasshoppers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and Grasshoppers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lausanne's recent matches and 42% of Grasshoppers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lausanne and Grasshoppers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lausanne's recent games and 36% of Grasshoppers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Grasshoppers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Lausanne's recent matches and 68% of Grasshoppers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and Grasshoppers share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne and Grasshoppers finished level at 2-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.29 xG and Grasshoppers 0.83 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Grasshoppers outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.07 / defence 0.86 against Grasshoppers attack 0.80 / defence 0.73, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 46% | Draw 32% | Grasshoppers 22%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 56%, Grasshoppers 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.31 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.