Lausanne 1-2 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host FC ST. Gallen at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 2.05 xG and FC ST. Gallen 4.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 2.095 / away 4.092. Data: 0 Lausanne games / 0 FC ST. Gallen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 15% | Draw 14% | FC ST. Gallen 72%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 6.67 | Draw 7.14 | FC ST. Gallen 1.39. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (72%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 94% | BTTS probability 86% | Total xG 6.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 94% — a total xG of 6.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 86% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 4.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 72% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 6.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 94% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 15% | Draw 14% | FC ST. Gallen 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 94% | BTTS 86% | xG Lausanne 2.05 / FC ST. Gallen 4.00 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 2.095 / away 4.092 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
4.00
FC ST. Gallen xG
86%
BTTS
99%
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
85%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Lausanne 1 - 2 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 15% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 72% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 86% probability that both Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 94%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 4.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-4, at 5.3%. Close behind: 2-3 (5.3%), 1-4 (5.2%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 16% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
15%
6.71
14%
7.40
72%
1.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 3
5.3%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 4
5.3%
Away win
1 – 3
5.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Lausanne xG
Total xG
6.05
4.00
FC ST. Gallen xG
6.71
15%
Home win
7.40
14%
Draw
1.40
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
94%
Over 2.5
1.06
6%
Under 2.5
16.67
85%
Over 3.5
1.18
15%
Under 3.5
6.67
72%
Over 4.5
1.39
28%
Under 4.5
3.57
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
86%
BTTS Yes
1.16
14%
BTTS No
7.14
Clean Sheet
2%
54.60
13%
7.75
Win to Nil
0%
–
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| 2 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-4 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 5.3%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Lausanne and 4.00 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 6.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Pre-Season
FC ST. Gallen
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lausanne
2
Draws
7
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 1, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Lausanne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 1-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 2.05 xG and FC ST. Gallen 4.00 xG, a combined 6.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC ST. Gallen landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 15% | Draw 14% | FC ST. Gallen 72%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 94%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 99% and landed. Over 3.5 was 85% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 86% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.