Lausanne 4-1 FC Lugano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Lugano at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Lugano encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Tuilière plays host to Lausanne versus FC Lugano in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Lausanne at Stade de la Tuilière this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Lugano have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Lugano away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FC Lugano arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Lugano half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 66% versus FC Lugano 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 55% | FC Lugano 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.25 xG and FC Lugano 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.907 / defence 1.433 | FC Lugano attack 0.800 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.606. Data: 29 Lausanne games / 29 FC Lugano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 26% | Draw 23% | FC Lugano 51%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | FC Lugano 1.96. FC Lugano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Lugano at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Lugano if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lausanne 60% | FC Lugano 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Lugano | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 26% | Draw 23% | FC Lugano 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Lausanne 1.25 / FC Lugano 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.907 / def 1.433 | FC Lugano attack 0.800 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.606 • Poisson stance: FC Lugano (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.84
FC Lugano xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Lugano kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Lugano kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Lausanne 4 - 1 FC Lugano.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Lugano being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Lugano part of?
Lausanne vs FC Lugano is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 26% chance of winning, FC Lugano a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Lugano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lausanne and FC Lugano will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Lugano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Lugano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC Lugano in?
Lausanne (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. FC Lugano (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.91x the league average against FC Lugano's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Lugano's attack (0.80x) against Lausanne's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Lugano Win
26%
3.83
23%
4.38
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.09
1.84
FC Lugano xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
16%
6.30
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
4%
24.14
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Lugano expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.84 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lausanne's recent record stands at 3W 8D 18L from 29 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five.
FC Lugano, meanwhile, have gone 14W 4D 11L across 29 games — 1.59 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Lugano by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 2W 4D 8L from 14 games — 0.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Lugano's away record stands at 6W 2D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Lugano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lausanne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; FC Lugano are on 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Lugano
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Lugano in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 3W 8D 18L in their last 29 games (0.59 PPG), while FC Lugano have gone 14W 4D 11L in their last 29 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Lugano away?
FC Lugano's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.71 PPG; FC Lugano away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lausanne won 1-4 on 15 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Lugano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lausanne
3
Draws
4
FC Lugano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Lugano?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 3, FC Lugano have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Lugano last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when FC Lugano 2-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Lugano?
FC Lugano have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Lugano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 71%, FC Lugano 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Lausanne) and 50% (FC Lugano). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Lugano in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Lugano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Lugano?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lausanne's games and 43% of FC Lugano's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Lugano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Lausanne's matches and 50% of FC Lugano's.
Do Lausanne and FC Lugano tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC Lugano in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 4-1 hammering of FC Lugano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Lugano 4-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.25 xG and FC Lugano 1.84 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Lugano landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.91 / defence 1.43 against FC Lugano attack 0.80 / defence 1.12, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 26% | Draw 23% | FC Lugano 51%, with FC Lugano to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Lausanne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 55%, FC Lugano 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
FC Lugano's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Lugano arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.59. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line. FC Lugano (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.