Lausanne 3-1 FC Lugano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face FC Lugano.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Tuilière plays host to Lausanne versus FC Lugano in Super League (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Lausanne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lausanne at home: 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Lugano have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Lugano away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Lausanne's last 6 home games and FC Lugano's last 10 away games) — Lausanne have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, FC Lugano in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FC Lugano half-time and goal-timing data (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 83% and FC Lugano 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 83% | FC Lugano 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.91 xG and FC Lugano 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.950 / defence 1.066 | FC Lugano attack 1.136 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.273. FC Lugano's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lausanne's projected output up. Data: built from Lausanne's last 12 games and FC Lugano's last 47.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 44% | Draw 26% | FC Lugano 29%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.25 | Draw 3.83 | FC Lugano 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 6 home games and FC Lugano's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 67% (last 6 home games) | FC Lugano 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Lugano | Competition: Super League, matchday 13 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 44% | Draw 26% | FC Lugano 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Lausanne 1.91 / FC Lugano 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.950 / def 1.066 | FC Lugano attack 1.136 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.54
FC Lugano xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Lugano FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC Lugano kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Lugano kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Lausanne 3 - 1 FC Lugano.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Lugano being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Lugano part of?
Lausanne vs FC Lugano is a Super League fixture (matchday 13) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 44% chance of winning, FC Lugano a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Lausanne and FC Lugano will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs FC Lugano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.95x the league average against FC Lugano's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Lugano's attack (1.14x) against Lausanne's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 12 games and FC Lugano's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.83
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.45
1.54
FC Lugano xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
4%
22.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.3 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC Lugano Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Lugano expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.54 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Lugano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lausanne's recent record stands at 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
FC Lugano, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 5L across 12 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Lugano by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Lugano's away record stands at 2W 0D 4L across their last 6 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Lugano's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Lausanne are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC Lugano are on 1.92 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; FC Lugano in 67%.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Lugano
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs FC Lugano (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
FC Lugano
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs FC Lugano Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC Lugano in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Lugano have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Lugano away?
Lausanne's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.33 PPG; FC Lugano away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lausanne and FC Lugano, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
FC Lugano have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Lugano won Lausanne 0-4 FC Lugano on 20 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Lugano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lausanne
3
Draws
4
FC Lugano
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC Lugano H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Lugano?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 3, FC Lugano have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Lugano last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Lausanne 0-4 FC Lugano.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Lugano?
FC Lugano have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Lugano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Lausanne, 67% for FC Lugano — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lausanne and 100% for FC Lugano. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Lugano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Lugano Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC Lugano matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lausanne's games and 67% of FC Lugano's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and FC Lugano matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lausanne's matches and 100% of FC Lugano's.
Do Lausanne and FC Lugano matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Lausanne's recent matches and 67% of FC Lugano's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Lugano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Lugano 3-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.91 xG and FC Lugano 1.54 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against FC Lugano attack 1.14 / defence 1.21, drawn from 12/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 44% | Draw 26% | FC Lugano 29%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 83%, FC Lugano 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
FC Lugano's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Lugano arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.