Lausanne 1-2 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face BSC Young Boys.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lausanne welcome BSC Young Boys to Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lausanne — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Lausanne have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, BSC Young Boys stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Lausanne) versus 1.60 (BSC Young Boys). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lausanne have won 1, BSC Young Boys 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Lausanne 1–1 BSC Young Boys — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 53% versus BSC Young Boys 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 55% | BSC Young Boys 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lausanne surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while BSC Young Boys have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.45 xG and BSC Young Boys 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.037 / defence 0.697 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.774 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.221. BSC Young Boys's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.66. Lausanne have a tight defence (rating 0.697), which is pulling BSC Young Boys's projected output down. Data: built from Lausanne's last 53 games and BSC Young Boys's last 53.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 55% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 15%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.83 | Draw 3.29 | BSC Young Boys 6.63. The model has a clear lean to Lausanne (55%) — a 25pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 40% (last 10 home games) | BSC Young Boys 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 55% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Lausanne 1.45 / BSC Young Boys 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.037 / def 0.697 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.774 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
0.66
BSC Young Boys xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Lausanne 1 - 2 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys is a Super League fixture (matchday 21) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 55% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Lausanne and BSC Young Boys will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 1.04x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 53 games and BSC Young Boys's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.29
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.11
0.66
BSC Young Boys xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
4%
28.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.6 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Lausanne and 0.66 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 20W 16D 22L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 29W 15D 14L from 58 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.72 PPG from their last 29 home games (14W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 9W 10D 10L from their last 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.74 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs BSC Young Boys (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 29W 15D 14L in their last 58 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or BSC Young Boys away?
Lausanne's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.72 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from February 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won Lausanne 5-0 BSC Young Boys.
Lausanne's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
2
Draws
4
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Lausanne 2-2 BSC Young Boys.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 45%, BSC Young Boys 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Lausanne) and 45% (BSC Young Boys).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; BSC Young Boys in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and BSC Young Boys matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lausanne's recent matches and 52% of BSC Young Boys's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Lausanne's recent games and 45% of BSC Young Boys's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and BSC Young Boys matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lausanne's recent matches and 72% of BSC Young Boys's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as BSC Young Boys defy the odds to beat Lausanne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat Lausanne 1-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.45 xG and BSC Young Boys 0.66 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.04 / defence 0.70 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 55% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 15%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a BSC Young Boys win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 55%, BSC Young Boys 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.