FC Vaduz 1-2 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Thun at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Vaduz vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rheinpark Stadion plays host to FC Vaduz versus FC Thun in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Vaduz have collected 0.75 PPG across 8 Super League outings this season: 2W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.12 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.38 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Vaduz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Vaduz at Rheinpark Stadion this season: 2W 0D 1L from 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — FC Vaduz are significantly better at Rheinpark Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Thun (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 3.10. Conceding 3.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Thun have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.75 for FC Vaduz, 0.80 for FC Thun — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Vaduz register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, FC Thun in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Vaduz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 62%.
FC Thun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Vaduz 100% and FC Thun 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Vaduz 100% | FC Thun 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Vaduz 2.86 xG and FC Thun 2.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Vaduz attack 1.285 / defence 1.248 | FC Thun attack 1.237 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.858 / away 1.893. FC Vaduz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 2.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 2.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 FC Vaduz games / 41 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Vaduz 40% | Draw 17% | FC Thun 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Vaduz 2.50 | Draw 5.88 | FC Thun 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 17% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 93% | BTTS probability 89% | Total xG 5.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 93% — a total xG of 5.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 89% reflects that both xG figures (2.86 / 2.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 5.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 93% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 89% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Vaduz 100% | FC Thun 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 40% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Vaduz vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rheinpark Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Vaduz 40% | Draw 17% | FC Thun 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 93% | BTTS 89% | xG FC Vaduz 2.86 / FC Thun 2.92 • Poisson strength factors: FC Vaduz attack 1.285 / def 1.248 | FC Thun attack 1.237 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.858 / away 1.893 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.86
FC Vaduz xG
Expected Goals
2.92
FC Thun xG
89%
BTTS
98%
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
83%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Vaduz vs FC Thun kick off?
FC Vaduz vs FC Thun kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Rheinpark Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
FC Vaduz 1 - 2 FC Thun.
Where is FC Vaduz vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Rheinpark Stadion.
What competition is FC Vaduz vs FC Thun part of?
FC Vaduz vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC Vaduz a 40% chance of winning, FC Thun a 43% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 89% probability that both FC Vaduz and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC Vaduz vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 93%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Vaduz and FC Thun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Vaduz and FC Thun in?
FC Vaduz (all comps): 2W-0D-6L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 2.38 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. FC Thun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 3.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Vaduz's attack rating (1.28) and FC Thun's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.24x) against FC Vaduz's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.92.
These ratings are built from 8/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 5.4%. Close behind: 2-3 (5.2%), 3-2 (5.1%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 16% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
40%
2.47
17%
5.89
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
5.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 3
5.2%
Away win
3 – 2
5.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.86
FC Vaduz xG
Total xG
5.78
2.92
FC Thun xG
2.47
40%
Home win
5.89
17%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
98%
Over 1.5
1.02
2%
Under 1.5
50.00
93%
Over 2.5
1.08
7%
Under 2.5
14.29
83%
Over 3.5
1.20
17%
Under 3.5
5.88
68%
Over 4.5
1.47
32%
Under 4.5
3.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
89%
BTTS Yes
1.12
11%
BTTS No
9.25
Clean Sheet
5%
18.58
6%
17.44
Win to Nil
2%
45.90
2%
41.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 5.4%.
How many goals are FC Vaduz and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 2.86 expected goals for FC Vaduz and 2.92 for FC Thun, a combined total of 5.78.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Vaduz vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Vaduz's recent record stands at 2W 0D 6L from 8 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Vaduz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Thun, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for FC Vaduz against 0.88 for FC Thun. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Vaduz have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — FC Vaduz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Thun's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Vaduz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Vaduz are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 1.62 scored and 2.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Vaduz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC Thun in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Vaduz
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Vaduz and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC Vaduz have gone 2W 0D 6L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Vaduz at home or FC Thun away?
FC Vaduz's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Vaduz at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Thun away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Vaduz
0
Draws
1
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Vaduz and FC Thun?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Vaduz have won 0, FC Thun have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Vaduz and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when FC Vaduz 1-2 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Vaduz and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for FC Vaduz, 100% for FC Thun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Vaduz and 100% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Vaduz home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Vaduz play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Vaduz's games and 100% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Vaduz vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Vaduz's matches and 100% of FC Thun's.
Do FC Vaduz and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC Vaduz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Vaduz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Vaduz 1-2 at Rheinpark Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Vaduz 2.86 xG and FC Thun 2.92 xG, a combined 5.78. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Vaduz fell 1.9 short of their projected output. FC Thun landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Vaduz attack 1.28 / defence 1.25 against FC Thun attack 1.24 / defence 1.20, drawn from 8/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Vaduz 40% | Draw 17% | FC Thun 43%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 93%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 98% and landed. Over 3.5 was 83% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 89% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Vaduz 100%, FC Thun 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Vaduz's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Vaduz 0.75 PPG, FC Thun 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Thun win broke the near-deadlock. FC Vaduz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Thun (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.