FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Vaduz to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Kybunpark this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Vaduz stand at 2W 0D 5L from 7 Super League matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.29 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.43 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Vaduz have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Vaduz away from home this season: 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.84 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.86. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC ST. Gallen, 0 for FC Vaduz and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 3–2 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Vaduz trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 71%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 71% and FC Vaduz 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 57% | FC Vaduz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.46 xG and FC Vaduz 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.045 / defence 1.083 | FC Vaduz attack 0.892 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.892 / away 1.724. FC Vaduz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing FC ST. Gallen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 FC ST. Gallen games / 7 FC Vaduz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 19% | FC Vaduz 25%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.82 | Draw 5.26 | FC Vaduz 4.00. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.13. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.13 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Vaduz 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 19% | FC Vaduz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 74% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.46 / FC Vaduz 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.045 / def 1.083 | FC Vaduz attack 0.892 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.892 / away 1.724 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.67
FC Vaduz xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Kybunpark.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 55% chance of winning, FC Vaduz a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz?
Record (1 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 0 | FC Vaduz 0W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC Vaduz (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 2.43 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.04x the league average against FC Vaduz's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Vaduz's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.5%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
55%
1.81
19%
5.15
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
4.13
1.67
FC Vaduz xG
1.81
55%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.90
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
9%
11.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
2%
46.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.67 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 4.13.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Vaduz, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 5L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Vaduz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC ST. Gallen by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Vaduz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Vaduz's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Vaduz's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Vaduz are on 2.29 scored and 2.43 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC Vaduz in 100%.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
FC Vaduz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while FC Vaduz have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Vaduz away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Vaduz away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
FC ST. Gallen
0
Draws
0
FC Vaduz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz?
From 1 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, FC Vaduz have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when FC Vaduz 2-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC ST. Gallen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 100%, FC Vaduz at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC ST. Gallen and 100% for FC Vaduz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Vaduz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Vaduz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 100% of FC Vaduz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 100% of FC Vaduz's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Vaduz in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.