FC ST. Gallen 4-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 36 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Monday 29 May 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 3W 4D 3L at Kybunpark — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at Kybunpark than their overall form suggests.
FC Sion — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 0.80 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FC Sion in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 0 for FC Sion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 4–0 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Sion trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 69% and FC Sion 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 63% | FC Sion 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.32 xG and FC Sion 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.147 / defence 1.141 | FC Sion attack 0.993 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.300. Data: 71 FC ST. Gallen games / 71 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 22%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | FC Sion 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 80% | FC Sion 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.32 / FC Sion 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.147 / def 1.141 | FC Sion attack 0.993 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Sion xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen 4 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 55% chance of winning, FC Sion a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
Record (1 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 0 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. FC Sion (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.15x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
55%
1.81
22%
4.46
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.79
1.47
FC Sion xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
10%
10.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
2%
45.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.47 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 24W 20D 27L from 71 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 35L across 71 games — 1.01 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.30 PPG, FC Sion on 1.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 14W 13D 8L from 35 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 10W 10D 15L across 35 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.23 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; FC Sion in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 24W 20D 27L in their last 71 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 18W 18D 35L in their last 71 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Sion away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.57 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Sion have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 71%, FC Sion at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for FC ST. Gallen and 63% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 69% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 63% of FC Sion's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 4-0 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 36, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.32 xG and FC Sion 1.47 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.15 / defence 1.14 against FC Sion attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 55% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 22%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 63%, FC Sion 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.30 PPG, FC Sion 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.