FC ST. Gallen 1-2 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 7W 2D 1L at Kybunpark — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Sion — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 1.50 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Sion in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
FC Sion trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 65% and FC Sion 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Sion 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.10 xG and FC Sion 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.317 / defence 0.775 | FC Sion attack 1.068 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.385. FC ST. Gallen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC ST. Gallen's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 FC ST. Gallen games / 43 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 56% | Draw 26% | FC Sion 17%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | FC Sion 5.88. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 60% | FC Sion 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 56% | Draw 26% | FC Sion 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.10 / FC Sion 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.317 / def 0.775 | FC Sion attack 1.068 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC Sion xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 September 2022 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 2 FC Sion.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 56% chance of winning, FC Sion a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. FC Sion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.32x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
56%
1.77
26%
3.80
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.24
1.15
FC Sion xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
12%
8.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
2%
47.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.15 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 19W 8D 16L from 43 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 19L across 43 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.51 PPG, FC Sion on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 11W 6D 4L from 21 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.30 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Sion in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
FC Sion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Sion away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.86 PPG; FC Sion away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Sion have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 62%, FC Sion at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC ST. Gallen and 62% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 71% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 62% of FC Sion's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat FC ST. Gallen 1-2 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.10 xG and FC Sion 1.15 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Sion outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.32 / defence 0.78 against FC Sion attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 56% | Draw 26% | FC Sion 17%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a FC Sion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 70%, FC Sion 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.51 PPG, FC Sion 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.