FC ST. Gallen 1-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 25 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Sion to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 4W 3D 3L at Kybunpark — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Sion — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC ST. Gallen) versus 1.40 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Sion in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Sion trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 71% and FC Sion 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 67% | FC Sion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.46 xG and FC Sion 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.254 / defence 1.197 | FC Sion attack 0.816 / defence 1.589. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.467. FC ST. Gallen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.589 — this is suppressing FC ST. Gallen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 FC ST. Gallen games / 24 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 60% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 21%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | FC Sion 4.76. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 60% | FC Sion 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 60% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 70% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.46 / FC Sion 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.254 / def 1.197 | FC Sion attack 0.816 / def 1.589 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC Sion xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 60% chance of winning, FC Sion a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. FC Sion (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.25x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 2.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
60%
1.66
19%
5.36
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.3%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.90
1.43
FC Sion xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
9%
11.74
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
2%
55.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.43 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.90.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 8W 6D 10L from 24 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 11L across 24 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.25 PPG, FC Sion on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 4W 5D 3L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.33 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC Sion in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 8W 6D 10L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Sion away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.42 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
4
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Sion have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 67%, FC Sion at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (FC ST. Gallen) and 58% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 75% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 58% of FC Sion's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen and FC Sion finished level at 1-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.46 xG and FC Sion 1.43 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.25 / defence 1.20 against FC Sion attack 0.82 / defence 1.59, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 60% | Draw 19% | FC Sion 21%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 67%, FC Sion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.25 PPG, FC Sion 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.