FC ST. Gallen 6-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 meet at Kybunpark in Super League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at Kybunpark than their overall form suggests.
FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Basel 1893's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, FC Basel 1893 are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 68% and FC Basel 1893 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 63% | FC Basel 1893 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.24 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.896 / defence 1.206 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.073 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.297. Data: 68 FC ST. Gallen games / 68 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 26% | Draw 28% | FC Basel 1893 46%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | FC Basel 1893 2.17. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 80% | FC Basel 1893 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 26% | Draw 28% | FC Basel 1893 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.24 / FC Basel 1893 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.896 / def 1.206 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.073 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.68
FC Basel 1893 xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen 6 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 26% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.90x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.07x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
26%
3.78
28%
3.59
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
2.92
1.68
FC Basel 1893 xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
5%
20.25
13%
7.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.68 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 68 games, going 23W 18D 27L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.53 PPG from 68 outings (25W 29D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.53 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 13W 13D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.47 points per game from 34 outings (12W 14D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.66 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 23W 18D 27L in their last 68 games (1.28 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 25W 29D 14L in their last 68 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
3
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 71%, FC Basel 1893 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC ST. Gallen) and 47% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 56% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of FC ST. Gallen's recent games and 47% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 6-1 hammering of FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 6-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.24 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.68 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 4.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.07 / defence 0.83, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 26% | Draw 28% | FC Basel 1893 46%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 63%, FC Basel 1893 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.28 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.