FC ST. Gallen 3-3 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kybunpark plays host to FC ST. Gallen versus BSC Young Boys in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 2W 4D 3L at Kybunpark — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BSC Young Boys (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BSC Young Boys's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.56 PPG). They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.70 for BSC Young Boys — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BSC Young Boys half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 74% and BSC Young Boys 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 68% | BSC Young Boys 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.06 xG and BSC Young Boys 2.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.865 / defence 1.228 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.148 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.662. Data: 19 FC ST. Gallen games / 19 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 16% | Draw 18% | BSC Young Boys 66%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | BSC Young Boys 1.52. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 67% | BSC Young Boys 56% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 16% | Draw 18% | BSC Young Boys 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.06 / BSC Young Boys 2.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.865 / def 1.228 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.148 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.662 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
2.34
BSC Young Boys xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
FC ST. Gallen 3 - 3 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 16% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.86x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BSC Young Boys's attack (1.15x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 2.34.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 0-2 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
16%
6.39
18%
5.44
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.40
2.34
BSC Young Boys xG
6.39
16%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
10%
10.41
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
2%
66.53
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 2.34 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 4D 10L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 10W 5D 4L from 19 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for BSC Young Boys is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC ST. Gallen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L).
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BSC Young Boys come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.32 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 4D 10L in their last 19 games (1.00 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or BSC Young Boys away?
BSC Young Boys's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.11 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 28 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against BSC Young Boys — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
1
Draws
5
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when BSC Young Boys 1-2 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 67%, BSC Young Boys 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (FC ST. Gallen) and 56% (BSC Young Boys). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 56% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 56% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 20, as FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys drew 3-3 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.06 xG and BSC Young Boys 2.34 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 16% | Draw 18% | BSC Young Boys 66%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 68%, BSC Young Boys 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.