FC ST. Gallen 4-0 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC ST. Gallen face BSC Young Boys.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
kybunpark plays host to FC ST. Gallen versus BSC Young Boys in Super League (matchday 2). Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC ST. Gallen have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
BSC Young Boys (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BSC Young Boys's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.90 for BSC Young Boys — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 1 for BSC Young Boys and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 May 2024, ended FC ST. Gallen 1–3 BSC Young Boys — a BSC Young Boys win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
BSC Young Boys half-time and goal-timing data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC ST. Gallen 59% versus BSC Young Boys 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 51% | BSC Young Boys 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC ST. Gallen surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while BSC Young Boys have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.89 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.097 / defence 1.045 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.963 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.244. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 34 games and BSC Young Boys's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 52% | Draw 22% | BSC Young Boys 25%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.92 | Draw 4.45 | BSC Young Boys 3.95. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and BSC Young Boys's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 80% (last 10 home games) | BSC Young Boys 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (FC ST. Gallen 34 games, BSC Young Boys 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, matchday 2 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 52% | Draw 22% | BSC Young Boys 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.89 / BSC Young Boys 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.097 / def 1.045 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.963 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
BSC Young Boys xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
FC ST. Gallen 4 - 0 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys is a Super League fixture (matchday 2) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 52% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.10x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BSC Young Boys's attack (0.96x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 34 games and BSC Young Boys's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
52%
1.92
22%
4.45
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.14
1.25
BSC Young Boys xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
15%
6.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
4%
26.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.25 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 16W 9D 14L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 22W 8D 9L from 39 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC ST. Gallen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 19 home games (11W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 8W 5D 6L from their last 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.95 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: BSC Young Boys in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs BSC Young Boys (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 16W 9D 14L in their last 39 games (1.46 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 22W 8D 9L in their last 39 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or BSC Young Boys away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.95 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.53 PPG.
Have FC ST. Gallen or BSC Young Boys been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC ST. Gallen have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, BSC Young Boys in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 4-0 BSC Young Boys on 28 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against BSC Young Boys — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
1
Draws
5
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: BSC Young Boys 2-0 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 74%, BSC Young Boys 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (FC ST. Gallen) and 42% (BSC Young Boys). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 53% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 42% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 74% of BSC Young Boys's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of BSC Young Boys.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat BSC Young Boys 4-0 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.89 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.25 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BSC Young Boys landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.96 / defence 1.05, drawn from 34/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 52% | Draw 22% | BSC Young Boys 25%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 51%, BSC Young Boys 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with FC ST. Gallen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.